F1 2019 Title Permutations: Mexico

Mercedes secured the Constructors’ Championship in Japan, now Hamilton can take his sixth title in Mexico. Here are the title permutations heading in to the 2019 Mexican Grand Prix.

Mercedes’ 1-3 result at Suzuka secured their sixth consecutive title and also ensured that one of their drivers will become the 2019 World Champion. This will be the first time in Formula 1 history that a team have taken six successive Drivers’ and Constructors’ Championships.


The result in Japan means that the Mexican Grand Prix is the first potentially title-deciding race of the 2019 season. The simplest permutation is that Hamilton will be champion if he out-scores Bottas by 14 points. To be in with a chance of doing so, Hamilton must finish on the podium – something which he hasn’t done in Mexico in each of the last two seasons. Here are the permutations: Hamilton will be crowned champion in Mexico if…

Hamilton finishes… …and Bottas finishes
1st + Fastest Lap 4th or lower
1st 5th or lower
2nd + Fastest Lap 8th or lower
2nd 8th (without Fastest Lap)
9th or lower
3rd + Fastest Lap 9th or lower
3rd 10th or lower
(without Fastest Lap)

If Hamilton wins and Bottas finishes fourth AND sets the fastest lap, the championship will not be won in Mexico.

If Hamilton does win the title in Mexico, it will be third successive season in which he has secured the honours in Mexico City. It would be the first time that the title has been secured at the Mexican Grand Prix in three consecutive years and the sixth time overall. Japan, Italy and Brazil are the only countries which have crowned more World Champions, while Japan and Brazil are the only nations where a champion has been crowned in three successive years.


Bottas can still win the title, but his chances are not good. He will only be able to secure the title at the final round of the season. If Bottas wins and sets the fastest lap in every remaining round of the 2019 season, Hamilton can score no more than 39 points in order for the Finn to take his first title.

In the more immediate future, a podium finish, or fourth place and the fastest lap, for Bottas in Mexico will ensure that he keeps the championship alive until the United States Grand Prix.


Both Hamilton and Mercedes could set new records for most points scored in a single season. Hamilton set a new record in the Drivers’ Championship by scoring 408 points in 2018. Hamilton has scored 338 points so far this year and there are still 104 points on offer for the remaining four races of the 2019 season. A top two finish in the last four races will see Hamilton set a new record.

For Mercedes, the number of points they need to beat to set a new record is 765 – the number which they scored in 2016. They have scored 612 points so far this year, and there are a maximum of 176 points remaining this year, giving them a possible maximum tally of 788 points, should they finish 1-2 and secure the fastest lap in all four races.

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