While the polesitter has won only once in the last eight races, 2nd and 3rd are most likely to score, and one of the top six on the grid is likely to retire. Here’s everything you need to know about the history of each grid slot at Albert Park!
THE STATS IN BRIEF:
- Polesitter has won once in last eight races
- 2nd and 3rd most likely to score
- Three consecutive DNFs for 6th
- Only 20th has never scored
- One of the top six is likely to retire
Grid Last Win Last Podium Last Points Last DNF Best Finish
1 2015 2019 2019 2014 1st
2 2019 2019 2019 2008 1st
3 2018 2018 2019 2012 1st
4 2010 2019 2019 2016 1st
5 - 2013 2019 2018 2nd
6 1999 2012 2016 2019 1st
7 2013 2013 2019 2011 1st
8 - 1999 2018 2015 3rd
9 - 2010 2019 2015 2nd
10 - 2014 2018 2010 3rd
11 2003 2005 2019 2016 1st
12 - - 2013 2019 5th
13 - 2005 2017 2006 3rd
14 - - 2015 2017 6th
15 - 2003 2019 2016 3rd
16 - - 2019 2010 6th
17 - - 2012 2018 7th
18 - - 2002 2019 5th
19 - - 2016 2018 4th
20 - - - 2018 8th
Here’s a run down of each grid slot’s history at the Albert Park circuit. The grid slots are ordered from most likely to finish in the top ten to least:
Points likelihood: 79%, Last points: 2019, Last DNF: 2008
The driver starting from second has won three of the last four Australian Grands Prix and has finished on the podium in all of the last five Albert Park races. Along with third on the grid, the driver starting from second at Albert Park is statistically most likely to score points. Only five races at the circuit have seen the driver starting from second not finish in the top ten. The driver starting here has failed to finish four times, most recently in 2008 when Felipe Massa retired. In addition to the four DNFs, Daniel Ricciardo was disqualified from the race having started second and finished on the podium in 2014.
Points likelihood: 79%, Last points: 2019, Last DNF: 2012
Aside from grid slots below twentieth which have frequently been left vacant, second and third positions on the grid have supplied the least overall non-finishes at Albert Park, each with five non-finishes. In addition to four DNFs from third on the grid – the most recent of which was in 2012 – Sebastian Vettel failed to finish but was classified thirteenth in 2009. The driver starting third has won the Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park on four occasions, most recently in 2018.
Points likelihood: 75%, Last points: 2019, Last DNF: 2014
Pole isn’t a particularly lucky place to start from in Melbourne. While the polesitter has finished on the podium in all but one of the last nine races here, they’ve also gone on to win the Australian Grand Prix just once in the last eight races. In all of the last four events at the Albert Park track, the polesitter (Lewis Hamilton at all three) has finished as runner-up in the Grand Prix. While pole has been converted into a win nine times in the 24 races at the Albert Park track since 1996, the polesitter has also retired from the Grand Prix here seven times. The only other results for a driver starting from pole at the track are second, third and fourth. 2003 is the only time that the polesitter here neither finished on the podium nor retired from the race – Michael Schumacher finished fourth that year.
Points likelihood: 71% Last points: 2019 Last DNF: 2016
The fourth-most likely grid slot to score points at Albert Park is fourth. In 2019, Max Verstappen became the first driver to finish on the podium having started fourth at the track since 2015. In the last ten races in Melbourne, two DNFs – for Michael Schumacher in 2012 and Kimi Raikkonen in 2016 – are the only occasions that the driver starting fourth has failed to finish in the top six. The driver starting fourth has been victorious twice, in 1997 and 2010.
Points likelihood: 67% Last points: 2019 Last DNF: 2018
A driver starting from fifth has never won the Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park. It is the only grid slot in the top seven to have never won here. Furthermore, fifth is the grid position in the top five which has seen the most non-finishes and the least top ten finishes. The driver starting here has not finished on the podium since 2013.
Points likelihood: 63% Last points: 2016 Last DNF: 2019
Interestingly, there have only ever been two races here (2005 and 2011) where all of the top six qualifiers finished the race. 2011 was also the only time the top six qualifiers at this track all went on to finish in the top six in the Grand Prix. It seems likely, then, that one big name will fail to reach the end of the 2020 Australian Grand Prix. In all of the last three races at Albert Park, the driver starting sixth has failed to finish the race. Eddie Irvine is the only driver to have won from this grid slot, doing so in 1999.
Points likelihood: 63% Last points: 2018 Last DNF: 2010
Along with sixteenth, tenth is the Albert Park grid slot which has gone the longest without a DNF. The last race here in 2019 marked the first time since Adrian Sutil’s retirement in 2010 that the driver starting tenth has failed to score at Albert Park. Sergio Perez finished only thirteenth in the 2019 race. Jenson Button is the only driver to score a podium finish from tenth on the grid here, doing so with third place in 2014.
Points likelihood: 58% Last points: 2018 Last DNF: 2015
The last race here in 2019 was the first time since 2015 that the driver starting from eighth failed to pick up points at the Australian Grand Prix. The driver starting eighth has finished on the podium only once. That driver was Ralf Schumacher, who finished third in 1999.
Points likelihood: 58% Last points: 2019 Last DNF: 2015
The driver starting ninth failed to score in every season between 2014 and 2016, but has picked up points in every year since. The driver starting here has not been classified nine times, including a DSQ for Kamui Kobayashi in 2011. Robert Kubica is the only driver to have scored a podium finish from this grid slot, finishing as runner-up in 2010.
Points likelihood: 50% Last points: 2019 Last DNF: 2011
Along with sixth on the grid, seventh is the grid slot in the top ten to have recorded the equal-most non finishes at Albert Park, with nine. That said, no one has retired from this grid slot since 2011 and the driver starting here has scored in all of the last seven races at the track. Kimi Raikkonen’s win from seventh is the only time that the driver starting here has won at Albert Park, as well as one of only two times that a podium finish has come from seventh.
Points likelihood: 50% Last points: 2009 Last DNF: 2017
There have been four occasions that a driver has started the Australian Grand Prix at Albert Park from the pit-lane. Both Toyota drivers started from the pits in 2009, with Jarno Trulli finishing on the podium and Timo Glock finishing fourth. The other two pit-lane starters at Albert Park – Jean Alesi in 2000 and Daniel Ricciardo in 2017 – have seen their races end in retirements.
Points likelihood: 42% Last points: 2019 Last DNF: 2016
Eleventh is the grid position with the most podium finishes from outside the top six on the grid. Drivers starting here have gone on to finish on the podium on three occasions, and eleventh position is also the record for the furthest back win here, which David Coulthard achieved in 2003. The driver starting here has scored in each of the last two Albert Park races.
Points likelihood: 42% Last points: 2017 Last DNF: 2006
While no-one has recorded a DNF starting from thirteenth since 2006, Sergio Perez was disqualified having started from thirteenth in 2011. The driver starting here has scored only twice in the last seven races at the track. Fernando Alonso is the only driver to secure a podium finish from here, doing so with a third place finish in 2005.
Points likelihood: 38% Last points: 2019 Last DNF: 2016
The driver starting fifteenth has scored at the last two Australian Grands Prix. Between 1996 and 2011, Kimi Raikkonen’s third place in 2003 is the only time that this grid slot scored points at Albert Park. It also remains the only podium finish from this position, as well as the furthest back podium finish in the track’s history (excluding pit-lane starts).
Points likelihood: 33% Last points: 2019 Last DNF: 2010
Sixteenth on the grid holds the record for the longest amount of time since the last non-classified finish in the Australian Grand Prix. The last driver to fail to be classified having started here is Kamui Kobayashi, who failed to finish following a first lap crash in 2010. No driver starting here has finished above sixth – which is where Riccardo Zonta finished having started sixteenth in 2000.
Points likelihood: 25% Last points: 2015 Last DNF: 2017
Along with nineteenth, fourteenth on the grid has had the second-most DNFs at the Albert Park circuit. In the last eight races here, the driver starting fourteenth has retired four times and has scored only one point – courtesy of Sergio Perez’s tenth place finish in 2015. Mika Salo recorded the best finish from this grid slot, finishing sixth in 2002.
Points likelihood: 25% Last points: 2002 Last DNF: 2019
Eighteenth is the grid slot at Albert Park which has gone the longest without scoring a point. Mark Webber’s fifth place finish in 2002 is the last time that the driver starting here scored, while Pedro de la Rosa’s sixth place in 1999 is the only other points-scoring occasion for the driver starting eighteenth at the Australian Grand Prix.
Points likelihood: 21% Last points: 2013 Last DNF: 2019
One of the unluckiest grid slots at Albert Park. The driver starting from twelfth has scored points only five times; less than any other grid slot in the top sixteen. In addition, the grid slot has recorded the most non-finishes, with thirteen DNFs and a DNS in 2015. Two of the last three races for the driver starting twelfth have resulted in retirements. No driver starting here has finished above fifth at the event, while Adrian Sutil’s seventh place in 2013 is the last time the driver starting from twelfth scored.
Points likelihood: 21% Last points: 2012 Last DNF: 2018
Chances of scoring points from seventeenth or further back on the grid are minimal, with 2016 being the only time in the last seven Melbourne races that one of these grid slots has scored. Seventeenth on the grid has had three non-finishes in the last five races, including a DNS for Kevin Magnussen in 2015. Kimi Raikkonen’s seventh place in 2012 is the most recent of three occasions that the driver starting seventeenth has scored at Albert Park.
Points likelihood: 13% Last points: 2016 Last DNF: 2018
The driver starting nineteenth on the grid at Albert Park has retired on thirteen occasions. 2019 marked the first time since 2016 that the driver starting nineteenth has finished the Australian Grand Prix. Romain Grosjean’s sixth place finish for Haas in 2016 is one of only three occasions that nineteenth on the grid has scored at Albert Park, the other times being Eddie Irvine’s fourth place finish in 2002 and Jacques Villeneuve’s sixth place finish in 2006.
Points likelihood: 8% Last points: – Last DNF: 2018
Every grid slot within the top twenty has secured at least two top ten finishes since 1996, though a driver starting from twentieth on the grid has never scored points at the Albert Park circuit. Points have come from further back than twentieth, though. Felipe Massa and Sergio Perez finished sixth and eighth in 2007 and 2012 respectively having started from 22nd, while Toyota drivers Jarno Trulli and Timo Glock took home third and fourth place after starting from the pit-lane in 2009. The best result for a driver starting twentieth at Albert Park is eighth, for Pedro de la Rosa in 2002. 2019 marked the first time since 2014 that the driver starting from twentieth on the grid had finished the race since 2014.
After graduating in 2015 with a First Class honours degree in English Language and Literature, Nicky Haldenby, a lifelong fan of Formula 1, founded the Lights Out F1 Blog in 2016. Now in its sixth season, the blog has become a firm fan-favourite, delving deep into the sport’s history books and lifting the cover on unusual F1 statistics. Nicky also writes at F1Destinations and Motorsport Guides. In 2017 and 2018, he wrote for Badger GP. Nicky is also the host of the F1 Rewind Podcast and can be heard as the resident stats man on the 2 Soft Compounds Podcast.